Is Demand for Intelligence always growing?
Intelligence is not compute bound - it’s constrained by our ability to set and pursue ever more goals
The rapid expansion of gigawatt-scale infrastructure for AI training and inference raises a pivotal question: is intelligence a resource with limitless demand? Unlike the common Silicon Valley assumption that intelligence is constrained by computational power, we argue that intelligence is fundamentally goal-bound. Its growth depends not on compute but on the continuous pursuit of new objectives. To explore this, we draw on Marcus Hutter and Shane Legg’s formal definition of intelligence, which provides a mathematical framework for understanding intelligence as a measurable, optimizable scalar.
Defining Intelligence
Hutter and Legg’s work offers a rigorous definition of intelligence, rooted in the ability to achieve goals across diverse environments. Intelligence, in their view, is characterized by:
Goal Orientation: Intelligence is driven by the pursuit of specific objectives.
Diverse Goals: It operates across a wide range of contexts and challenges.
Value Maximization: Intelligence seeks to maximize outcomes relative to goals.
Simplicity in Execution: Solutions are weighted by their (Kolmogorov) complexity, favoring simpler approaches.
This framework aligns Richard Sutton’s emphasis on learning from experience with Hutter’s mathematical rigor, providing a formal backbone. While Sutton explores continuous learning, Hutter’s universal intelligence sums performance across all possible environments, offering a scalar metric that quantifies intelligence as the ability to achieve goals efficiently.
Intelligence can grow indefinitely
The notion that intelligence is compute-bound is a misconception. Instead, intelligence scales with the creation of new goals. Consider ambitious endeavors like colonizing Mars, developing autonomous robotaxis, advancing drone warfare, or creating robotic workers. Each introduces novel environments and objectives, demanding greater intelligence to navigate and succeed. As Hutter’s definition suggests, intelligence grows as we expand the scope of goals across diverse contexts.
Philosopher Karl Popper’s insights further illuminate this dynamic. Popper argued that progress stems from solving problems, which in turn generates new problems to solve. This cycle—identifying challenges, addressing them, and uncovering new ones—drives the growth of intelligence. A society that fosters this process becomes not only more intelligent but also wealthier. As David Deutsch defines it, wealth is the “set of all possible transformations.” The more goals we pursue, the more environments we create, and the more transformations we achieve, amplifying both intelligence and wealth.
Karl Popper’s view on a free society also fosters intelligence
For intelligence to flourish, a society must be structured to encourage goal-seeking behavior. This requires:
Freedom: The liberty to experiment, question the status quo, and take risks.
Courage: The boldness to pursue uncharted paths and embrace failure as a step toward progress.
Openness to Experimentation: A culture that tolerates and rewards innovative problem-solving.
These qualities are epitomized by history’s great entrepreneurs—not just in business but across domains like science, art, and exploration. Figures like Galileo, Columbus, Newton, Ford, Disney, Jobs, and Musk share a common trait: they dared to take unconventional paths, setting new goals that expanded human potential. This entrepreneurial spirit is the engine of intelligence. Conversely, sectors like government, education, or healthcare, where risk-taking and innovation are often stifled, struggle to build intelligence—not due to a lack of capable individuals, but because their structures limit entrepreneurial freedom.
Conclusion
Intelligence is not constrained by computational resources but by the courage and freedom to pursue new goals. Hutter and Legg’s formal definition underscores that intelligence is a scalar, growing as we achieve objectives across increasingly diverse environments. To sustain this growth, society must foster an environment of openness, experimentation, and bold risk-taking. Ultimately, the demand for intelligence is limitless as long as we continue to dream, innovate, and create new challenges to overcome. By nurturing entrepreneurial courage and freedom, we unlock the true potential of intelligence and wealth.